Please like or dislike the video or leave a comment below that will allow me to produce better videos and more of them in the future. So I’d like to show you a graph here – and this graph is of a lay strategy that I have so you can see over here is 0 over. Here is 250 pound. So this strategy itself, its maximum stake, is actually smaller. It’S it’s always permanent permanently below 10 pound, and that’s just the way that the strategy works. It’S done on small stakes because it was an experimental strategy, but you can see that it is working because all these numbers over here are much higher.
This number or this plot over here is it 200, this one is it 190 or so this one is at a hundred and opps. What’S this one, this one is actually negative, I’ll explain what’s going on in a second, but my point here is: how do you know that a system is working and wider systems seem to turn negative the moment you starts to use them. Well, if you look at this plot here, the interesting thing about it is that if we I’ll just move this out of the way and we’ll bring it back into play at some point, if you have a system – and this one this this system that I have Here is a as a lay system, so you expect a fair amount of variability say: you’ve got a profitable system, it’s gon na, be here and when it starts it’s going to be over here, but the journey between the two is not going to be a straight Line it would be absolutely incredible if the system sort of went like that. You know that is not realistic.
That is just not going to happen, you’re not going to see that that never happens. However, what tends to happen is this is the break-even line here. Is that the system will be meander and do this and sort of end up with a graph? That looks something like that. You know there are going to be points at which it’s negative. So, very often, when you create a system, it may actually be long term profitable, but you never actually stay in the system long enough to figure out.
If that is the case, and the problem is, if you measure on a pound note or a dollar for our American friends perspective at some point, that will probably be negative, you will end up underwater in pound note values of dollar values when you first start system, Because of this variability that you get at the very very start, many many years into the future, if your system remains intact, it will always end up on the positive side and you’ll be miles away from going negative. However, when you first start, you may have periods of draw downs where you are negative and very often what happens? Is you spend years looking at something you analyzed all the data you figure out that you’ve got a profitable system, you implement it and it just happens to go on a losing run. The moment you start and at that point you just sort of go. You know what I’m not going to do this any longer.
I’Ve obviously made a mistake, forget about it, but the fact is, it may just be in one of these down. Coves say you started your system here or you started your system here or you started your system here then in fact you know each time you would have been negative. It would be really unlucky if you did it three times and you ended up negative three times. It’S very likely that on one of those occasions, you’d actually pick the bottom or somewhere in the middle. Perhaps it would be unlucky if you did it three times in a row, but the fact is your system probably isn’t failing it’s just your psychology is basically saying I’m not willing to take a loss, I’m not willing to take a loss, I’m not willing to take A loss and therefore you never see it through whether you look at this over many months or over a trade in ten minutes.
The same psychology goes into play. The downside feels much worse than the upside and, and you tend to blame on external circumstances. The fact is, it’s your system and if it’s profitable or negative its you okay, nobody else is to blame. It’S you so get rid of that assumption, but necessarily when it sinks lower you’re, always looking for a reason as to why it failed, and if you have a profitable system you back test it you’ve looked at data. You’Ve done all of these things.
It could still be in one of these troughs when you first start it and the fact is that you’ll think yeah Jesus another one, another one. That’S gone completely to waste. I’Ve just wasted six months of my life and hours studying spreadsheets and the fact is, I’ve started it and its immediate ending to us, but it could just be a part of the natural variation of the system.
So therefore, when you’re looking at any system, what I tend to do is measure the variability in returns. So I tend to look at profit over turnover and basically, when you do that, and you express that as a percentage, what you tends to find when you do profit over turnover, whether it’s trading betting, whatever to start with you know, the the the variability is like That and then eventually it settles down, so you actually look at your line and basically that line ends up sort of gradually slowly above it, and then you go hey. We have a long-term profitable system, but in the early days that profit over turnover is going to be incredibly variable and you will not know if you have a profitable system or not, but just simply for the facts that it was negative at one point or hugely Positive at the other, when it’s negative, it doesn’t mean that you’ve got a terrible system.
You’Re going to lose enormous amounts of money will probably regress to mean at some point and likewise, on the positive side, there have been many times when I’ve started with very negative systems of very positive systems, but I’ve just learnt over time that you just think. Well, it doesn’t matter, it makes it’s an irrelevance. What I’m more interested in is when this number starts to settle down here, so it could be a tiny number.
It could be something like you know, 0.15 percent or something, but when you’re consistently chucking in the same number, when you compare profits to turnover as a percentage when that number begins to stabilize and settle on a particular value. That’S when you can give it the tick and say: let’s progress and go ahead. I have a profitable system. So if we go back to where we started, which was this chart here, what you should also do is run variations on your system. So what you can see on this top line here, if I, if I do a gentle plot here, so that you can see it a little bit clearer, you can actually see.
If I draw this, can you see how variable it is when you look at it? After it’s long term period where it’s up sort of two hundred and something odd pound, you know that looks pretty clear-cut. You definitely know that we have a profitable system there and if you express that as a percentage on turnover, you could tell that fairly fairly early on it was generally positive. Most of the time, however, you could have easily ducked out down at this point here. You could have easily said all you know what I’m losing money on this I’m going to abandon it, but this chart actually runs from mid-may to the end of July.
So over two and a half months, I’ve managed to just using 10-pound stakes to rack up over two hundred pounds worth of profit, so that is definitely profitable. But I’m not looking at that from a monetary perspective, I’m expressing it as a percentage of turnover, which is the way that I suggest you do it. So if you look down here, you can see that there’s something that’s consistently negative, so that one has definitely not worked. What is that system, and what was I doing on that? Well, each one of these plots is a variation on that main system.
So it’s taking the same data, the same qualification, but it’s varying it, and the reason that we’re doing that is we’re trying to prove that this big positive line is true, that there is some element of truth in it that we have found value in this particular System that there is a positive expectancy, so this line down here is a negative variation on the strategy. So this is saying: well if this strategy is positive for the following reasons, then it goes to make perfect sense that if we modify elements of that in such a way that we try and turn it negative, it should be negative. And that is exactly what we’ve seen so I know that this is a strategy that not only works, but something that I can scale and start raising the stakes on, and that is because I can prove and disprove the strategy like it works. It definitely works. There’S another line through here that you’ll be interested in as well, which I’m going to plot here.
You can see it’s a little bit shallower and the line that you see running through here is basically a modification of the system. So it’s not as risky as this. It doesn’t have all the qualifying criteria here. This is saying: is there a Midway? Is there a safe point, something that produces less variation and again this goes on to prove and qualify that the the general system is working, because we’re saying if we didn’t want to take as much risk and we wanted to raise stakes slowly then, is there a Middle line that we can follow that it’s perhaps over qualifies perhaps what we’re attempting to do and that’s the middle line that you can see there.
So my suggestion to you is that you know wider systems fail the moment you use them very often they don’t. It’S just the natural variability of the system. If you want to eliminate that natural variability measure, your profit against your turnover and when that percentage starts to settle. That’S the true value of the system that you have or have not uncovered, but also implement the same strategy. But with variations, because if you can prove that it works for a certain reason and you modify it in such a way that it should have a negative effect on it, and you see that negative effect, then you’ve definitely got something that is profitable and that’s how I suggest you look at a system whether it’s your trading, a betting system or any other type of process.
That’S the way that I suggest you look at it, analyze it and make a decision about whether what you’ve got is worth something or whether you perhaps just flipped it or perhaps you joined it on the wrong part of the cycle. That’S what I do and you can see on this particular strategy that I invented this year over two and a half months. I can definitely prove that it’s for real, because I can all of those factors go into place.
Percentage on turnover, positive and negative. Variations on the system prove that this is working perfectly and that’s what I suggest you do if you’re interested in learning more about betting. Gel its tools and the opportunities they present, then, why not visit bet angel comm today and download a free trial?